InstaForex

EURUSD Forecast: Indecisive after ECB, technical outlook remains bullish, potential scenarios on NFP

Friday, 06 November 2009 04:46

The EURUSD peaked at 1.4917 after an optimistic statement about Euro economy outlook from the ECB, but closed lower at 1.4871, formed a Doji on daily chart indicating indecisive movement. While my technical outlook remains bullish with 1.5060 and 1.5300 as potential target, I think the market is waiting for NFP and unemployment rate today, which expected to be at -175 K and 9,9%. While most economic data both in US and Euro generally show positive signals, many analysts see high rate of unemployment as a potential  obstacle to the recovery progress. I have three possible scenarios regarding NFP number:

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USDCHF Daily Forecast: November 05

Thursday, 05 November 2009 05:01

USDCHF Forecast
The false breakout from the range area on Tuesday proved to lead further bearish momentum for the USDCHF yesterday, bottomed at 1.0125 and closed at 1.0147. However, early today in Asian session the pair rebound to the upside and now back inside the range area. Although I prefer a bearish scenario at this phase, I think it’s not the best time to trade now. While technically we need consistent move below 1.0166 area to confirm bearish scenario re-testing 1.0000/40 area, on fundamental side focus is now at ECB conference today.

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USDJPY Daily Forecast: November 05

Thursday, 05 November 2009 05:00

USDJPY Forecast:
The USDJPY had a bullish momentum yesterday, topped at 91.31 but closed lower at 90.84. On h4 chart below we can see that my minor trendline support (former resistance, yellow) did a good job preventing bearish attack. This fact threat  my bearish outlook for sure and the lower line of the bullish channel is now the final resistance to be tested.

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GBPUSD Daily Forecast: November 05

Thursday, 05 November 2009 04:59

GBPUSD Forecast:
The Sterling was also benefit from Dollar bearish after FOMC yesterday, topped at 1.6596 and closed at 1.6555. Technically on h4 chart below we can see that my triangle has been violated to the upside indicating potential further bullish scenario at least towards 1.6700 area before re-testing 1.7042.  Immediate support at 1.6520/00 area. Break below that area should lead us into no trading zone but I prefer bullish scenario at this phase.

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